The speed with which conventions evolve in modern baseball makes it difficult to establish much in the way of conventional wisdom.
New ways to measure newly discovered data and apply it to new metrics can leave a lot of room for disagreement, and without even consistent agreement in the languages being spoken by evaluators, there can be a big gap in that search for answers.
And yet after a year up close and personal with the St. Louis Cardinals, there are some fairly drawn conclusions that summarize one of the most fascinating — and ultimately, anticlimactic — seasons for a franchise in many summers. Settling on these conclusions feels like safe harbor — for now.
1. The managerial switch was the right decision.
Mike Shildt is a good baseball man who’s been an important part of player development for countless players and who shepherded a franchise he cared a great deal about through unprecedented troubled waters. His firing last fall came as a shock and was a significant decision point for the people in the front office making the call, and it turned out to be absolutely correct.
Oli Marmol’s first year in the dugout showcased a manager who was more than prepared for every part of the job and who was able to relate to his players in a way that was essential for holding the clubhouse together. The cohesion among his staff was also notable, and the flexibility with which he managed a shifting roster was a function of modern management that may have eluded Shildt.
Marmol was also intimately involved in the process of bringing Albert Pujols back to St. Louis. There’s nothing to say Shildt wouldn’t also have been (he and Pujols are close), but we know for sure that Marmol was, and that’s worth a great deal.
2. It was better that Albert Pujols left when he did.
Every memory of Albert Pujols in a Cardinals uniform is a positive one for fans. He dominated the league for 11 seasons, left with a World Series win, and came back for an incredible victory lap which ended in historic accomplishments.
In between was a decade on the west coast where he struggled with injuries and performance, was turned on by fans and media alike, and was saddled with the disappointment that comes with an enormous free agent deal that doesn’t work out.
Might Pujols have approached the all-time home run records if he stayed in St. Louis? Perhaps. But it surely wouldn’t be worth the gamble to trade what he did for what he might have done.
3. The Cardinals weren’t prepared for Yadier Molina’s departure.
A franchise that prides itself on player development needing to replace its signature player in the free agent market raises a few eyebrows, and even more so when a train of top prospects have come through the system and given some shots to show what they can do.
Carson Kelly turned into Paul Goldschmidt. Iván Herrera might still develop into a strong regular. Andrew Knizner has improved significantly as a defender but the bat hasn’t come around in his limited chances, and he was bluntly dismissed as a starter option by those in charge entering the winter.
Willson Contreras will be beloved in St. Louis and is more than up to the challenge of replacing a Hall of Famer. That it fell to him strongly suggests an organization which prides itself on resilience wasn’t prepared for the inevitable.
4. Player development is turning out hitters – mostly.
Brendan Donovan arrived as a Gold Glove winner, an on base machine, and the apparent incumbent at second base. Alec Burleson’s underlying numbers are reassuring enough that it’s kept the team out of the market for outside outfield help. Juan Yepez, thanks in part to working with Albert Pujols, is a bonafide power threat.
Nolan Gorman’s debut didn’t go exactly to script, however. The power is there. The contact isn’t quite. Dylan Carlson took an inarguable step back, though much of it might be the result of dealing with a nagging wrist injury. Expectations for that duo were higher than those for their teammates, so fighting to reach them isn’t unreasonable.
Jordan Walker will arrive in 2023 as the most anticipated offensive prospect for the Cardinals in a decade, and after being part of the organization exclusively under their new, modernized offensive approach. His returns will reveal a great deal about the success of the process.
5. Change is coming to the front office.
Without any fanfare, GM Michael Girsch and assistant GM Randy Flores were granted multi-year contract extensions at the end of the season. With John Mozeliak’s deal set to expire at the end of the 2023 season, it’s easy to see the outline of a succession plan in place.
Mozeliak has been in charge of on-field decisions for the Cardinals for the last 15 years and has deftly guided the organization to a championship while overseeing overwhelming financial success and cementing himself in the favor of ownership. When change comes, it will be on his time, at his discretion.
Girsch and Flores have been chased for major leadership roles in baseball over the past several years, and neither has seen fit to jump. Both recognize the value of their roles and the opportunity which is soon to arrive here. The Mo monolith won’t last forever.
