The recent trip by two top US foreign policy officials to Caracas, Venezuela, is a sign of just how much the geopolitical balance could be shifting in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
National Security Council Senior Director Juan Gonzalez and Venezuela Affairs Unit Chief James Story met embattled Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife on Saturday — the first since diplomatic relations between the two countries broke down in 2019.
Coverage of the meeting has, so far, focused on the possibility the White House might lift some of the sanctions it has imposed in recent years on the Venezuelan oil industry in order to replace imports from Russia, which US President Joe Biden banned earlier today.
Context: Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world — and historically, much of its crude oil has been exported to US refineries.
Venezuelan oil: Maduro confirmed Venezuela’s intention to increase its crude oil output on Monday, a move that comes as Russia’s oil exports are plummeting due to sanctions over its invasion in Ukraine.
“We are ready to regain production. One, two, or three million barrels, everything! Everything in the name of peace!” he said.
American deal might be easier said than done: Oil production in the country is at an almost all-time low after years of mismanagement and lack of maintenance of oil facilities.
It would take years, and billions of dollars of investments, to recover oil exports from Venezuela to what they used to be, suggests expert Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin American Energy Program at the Baker Institute in Houston. So if the White House needs a short-term solution to lower the price of gasoline, it cannot come from Venezuela.
US citizens released: However, the US officials’ Venezuelan deployment did bring some immediate results. Venezuela released at least two US citizens late Tuesday, with speculation it was done as a “sign of goodwill” from Maduro (and as part of potential sanctions relief) that has yet to happen.
Gustavo Cárdenas is a US citizen detained in Caracas since 2017 and one of six detained oil executives from US refinery CITGO. Later, Jorge Alberto Fernandez, a Cuban-US dual citizen detained in Venezuela since February 2021, was released from prison. He is not one of the so-called “CITGO 6.”
The Caracas trip signals the intention that the White House might be ready to change its relationship to Venezuela in the long term. That’s because Caracas has grown much closer to Moscow under Maduro’s rule.
But it is a high stakes bet: Maduro has walked away from negotiations before — and if it doesn’t work out, Biden will likely pay a political price.
