Russell Wilson is coming off his worst fantasy season since 2016. Part of his decreased value is his diminished rushing upside, in which Wilson (last year) registered career lows. Even so, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Gerald Everett are a great trio, mainly because of Metcalf and Lockett. With the Broncos, Wilson now has Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick and Albert Okwuegbunam, which is an arguable upgrade, particularly at the No. 3 receiver spot.
Wilson dealt with a mallet finger in 2021, but his lack of rushing will keep him on the lower end of the top 10 fantasy QB ranks, even with 100% health.
Drew Lock actually had a higher Air/ATT (10.06 to 9.89) than Wilson and percent of plays going 20+ yards (10.7 to 9.5), but we know about his inaccuracy (60.4 completion percentage), and Wilson wiped the floor with him in TD/INT (4.17 to 1.00) last year.
Wilson is a major upgrade for all Broncos pass catchers, which puts Jeudy in the “breakout guarantee” conversation, Sutton as the “bounceback” top pick, and Okwuegbunam will be a popular breakout pick at tight end. Both Sutton and Jeudy have the upside for top-20 fantasy finishes with Wilson in town. Okwuegbunam has flashed some upside while stuck behind Fant and can reach the low-end TE1 range, but I wouldn’t expect much more. Lock actually targets tight ends more often (almost 7% more in 2021 alone), and Wilson will take full advantage of Sutton and Jeudy, plus a great third in Patrick,
before heavily targeting Okwuegbunam.
As for Metcalf, Lockett and Fant, Lock takes aggressive shots downfield and likes his tight end particularly, having a history with Fant. If Lock is the 2022 starter, Metcalf would be in the mid-high WR2 group, now with more inconsistency, and Lockett slips to a fringe WR2, suffering from the same concern … unless Lock works better with Lockett than Metcalf, which is possible, and we’d flip their values.
Therefore, consider Metcalf and Lockett mid-20 receivers this offseason: Amari Cooper/Brandin Cooks-like upside and volatile downside are what we can expect. Fant, meanwhile, will see his low-end TE1 value will carry over to the Seahawks. Of course, don’t eliminate the possibility for Geno Smith getting starts or the Seahawks bringing in another option, possibly in the draft.
